Sunday, March 20, 2005

The Die Is Cast

The die has been cast. Museveni is surely running for election. But, more than that, it means that Museveni's plan to become president for life is now being implemented. Think of it: Why would Museveni change a whole constitution in order to benefit another president? The truth is that Museveni and his henchmen are not willing to leave power to another party. They would not change a constitution merely to allow Museveni to run. That would be risky because he could lose the election thereby installing an opponent to a life presidency. And that is not the aim of the demand for a change in the constitution.
This is a serious crisis. Museveni has been ruling Uganda for the last twenty years under dubious code names for democracy and each time Ugandans watch without as much as a simple raising of a hand. Museveni eluded detection by hoodwinking the majority to think in terms of northerners versus him leading Uganda. They say Animal Farm is a classic but that is an understatement. It is actually the bible of achieving power and keeping it.
As we approach the month of April 2005, here are the probable scenarios that will unfold in Uganda:

  1. Harassment and intimidation of opponents and non NRM supporters as has already happened to Peggy Ntegyereize of Kampala, will become widespread.
  2. People will lose their livelihood, then their homes as has happened in Acholi.
  3. Then, there will come a spate of arrests and confinements in various ungazetted locations.
  4. Next will come extra judicial killings then a state of emergency will be declared, elections will be postponed and all political parties banned forever.
  5. As a result, many people will go underground, form factions and armed units fighting initially independent and uncoordinated guerilla wars.
  6. And, finally, when NRM/NRA is sufficiently weakened, the various factions from all corners of Uganda shall unite to form the new Supreme Uganda Army, ushering in a new era of independence, equality and dignity and development for all. Museveni will be known as the last tyrant Uganda has known.

All these may occur simultaneously or one after the other, but the fourth stage is the point of no return with a complete ban on all political activities except those supporting NRM. So, Ugandans can prepare to live with this increasing tyranny or oppose it with all the force in their power now and avoid traveling through all these six stages. The fate of the country is in your hands.

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